The Cupcake Index

We’ve used indices for about one hundred years to measure the strength of the economy. Bullish and bearish sentiment indices on the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrial average. Net buyers to net sellers. The Consumer Price Index. Producer Price Index.


And then there are the more subjective indices. The Hemline Index, which uses the relative skirt length to kneecap in determining direction of the capital markets. The Lipstick Index, which measures purchases of small indulgences as a reflection of consumer buy-in, or of the pent-up demand for luxury when one is least able to afford it on a grander scale.


I propose we add another relevant and clearly revealing economic index: The Cupcake Index. For not only in times of economic uncertainty but in times of economic prosperity, cupcakes provide the immediate gratification that people all over the world need.


And we especially need them now. Small enough in which to indulge without gnashing your will-powerless teeth with guilt. Tidy enough to embrace without leaving too many crumbs as out-of-the-office-for-a-quick-cupcake-fix evidence of breaking-the-diet-and-taking-a-work-break-all-at-the-same-time. Sweet enough to inject that required afternoon shot of sugar to the brain. Inexpensive enough to justify when most other discretionary longings are on indefinite freeze.


But alas, cupcakes provide one more element which practically requires them to receive an index all their own: they propel everyone higher on the happiness scale. And God only knows how we all need to inject more happiness into our lives. Cupcakes, while perfectly glorious eaten in private, are particularly satisfying while shared. Unlike an entire cake which, let’s face it, represents a wholehearted commitment (of inviting the neighbors over for an hour and putting up a pot of coffee), cupcakes can be noshed on with or without beverage of choice. Gulped down within a few minutes. Walking, standing or sitting at a cupcaketerie with a friend. A lone cupcake—vanilla, chocolate or ohmygosh red velvet—topped with buttercream icing cut in half and shared with two forks, is perhaps the single best remedy for a global economic recession. And moving higher on that happiness scale.


And I’m not alone. The New York Times feature story “Will Cupcakes Be the Next Krispy Kreme?” prompted blog responses from readers across the country. Turns out: people are mad for cupcakes. They’re clearly here to stay. Having taken the Big Apple by storm, lines wrap around the corner at the now famous Magnolia’s Bakery. Its third store just opened, competing head-on with Crumbs and Cupcake Café, among others. And while sales figures are hard to pin down, it’s clear that entrepreneurs are committed to elevating the previously lowly school-kids treat to connoisseur status. And heck: at $3 per, this is not exactly an every day treat. If one were to chart the Cupcake Index, I presume the line would be upward sloping to the right. With bullish indicators.


I would advise that as you move forward through these grayest of days: days of political and economic uncertainty, days when we clearly don’t know whether our favorite auto maker will survive the end of the fiscal year or find itself on the auction block, days when you’re not sure where or for how long you will be employed, that you treat yourself and a friend to a cupcake. To a forced break from the madness. To meaningful conversation. To creating a business relationship or continuing a personal friendship. To two forks and two coffees. To creating a distinct memory.


Oh, sweet cupcake. The cure for all of life’s worries. May an index be created just for you.


Blessings on your week,


Carolina